1. The communiqué
On 17 November 2006 a statement from an organization calling itself the Mujahedeen in Lebanon was posted to the al-Mohajroon jihadi forum.
Click to view archive...
The statement, as per the AP report includes the following:
• "The death squads that have been readied in Beirut to strike the Sunnis under Iranian fatwas and Alawite political support from Syria are waiting for the zero hour, which is imminent, to kill our people and destroy mosques similar to what happened and what is happening daily in the land of the two rivers (Iraq)."
• "Today they (Hizbullah) want to fully control Lebanon in alliance with Lebanon's Crusaders and to eliminate the Sunni sect once and for all. Let the heretics know that we are ready to confront them with God's help. Let it be a war for which we are more yearning than them."
The statement was posted to al-Mohajroon by "Murasil al-Shabakah" (the network correspondent), the persona responsible for posting at least 500 official communiqués from bona fide terrorist organizations, lending a certain credibility to this message.
The communiqué was generally well received by the brothers at al-Mohajroon, with the exception of one who claimed it an attempt to sow discord among the Muslims - in a classic example of Jihadi group-think, *that* comment was deleted.
2. Enter al-Arabiyyah
There is no mention in the communiqué of the Osbat al Ansar or any other al-Qaida faction. Nevertheless al-Arabiyyah was quick with a report pinning the label of "al-Qaida" on the Mujahedeen of Lebanon.
The hit piece inspired a great deal of commentary from al-Arabiyyah readers, and also prompted a rebuttal of sorts back at al-Mohajroon:
click to view archive...
The author does not claim to represent the Mujahedeen of Lebanon, but is clearly sympathetic and accuses al-Arabiyyah of seeking to harm the cause of Lebanese Sunnis by trying to associate them with al-Qaida based on nothing more than the statement being published on al-Mohajroon.
3. Regarding al-Mohajroon forum
In our experience, Egyptians and Saudis are like water and oil - they don't mix well. And so when we look at the top twenty countries where users of the al-Mohajroon forum reside it's no surprise that Saudis are absent:
| Country | % of users |
|---|---|
| Egypt | 13.22 |
| Morocco | 9.06 |
| Arab Emirates | 5.62 |
| Yemen | 5.07 |
| Palestine | 4.89 |
| USA | 4.53 |
| Algeria | 3.99 |
| Germany | 3.8 |
| Spain | 3.62 |
| Jordan | 3.62 |
| United Kingdom | 3.26 |
| France | 3.08 |
| Israel | 3.08 |
| Syria | 2.72 |
| Lebanon | 2.54 |
| Qatar | 2.54 |
| Canada | 2.36 |
| Bahrain | 1.99 |
| Netherlands | 1.99 |
| Belgium | 1.81 |
al-Mohajroon forum user distribution, circa 2006
The users of the forum clearly identify themselves with the global jihad, but the forum itself is not as closely associated with leadership elements of al-Qaida as are some other forums we monitor. That a communiqué appears on the site does not, in and of itself, make that statement an "al-Qaida" communiqué. For more information about this site see our mohajroon.com backgrounder.
4. The al-Muhajiroon connection
To the best of our knowledge there is no connection between the al-Mohajroon forum and the now-banned and allegedly disbanded organization in the UK with which it shares a name. This despite Omar Bakri having relocated to Lebanon in the past year. The name (literally "the immigrants") is a reference to the early followers of Mohammed who migrated with the Prophet from Mecca to Medina. It certainly cannot be ruled out that Bakri and his people may find some way to work the current situation to their advantage. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
5. Lebanon's Sunnis and al-Qaida
Lebanon's Sunni Muslim population is the weakest of all the ethnic/religious groups in the country, not due to lack of numbers, but due to lack of arms. This situation, combined with Hizballah's move to topple the current Lebanese government, and an emerging United States policy in Iraq that will involve a rapid exit from the region and abandonment of previous commitments, all combine to create a situation where on the one hand Lebanon's Sunnis are a people in need of a fighting force, and Sunni jihadis of the al-Qaida variety may be free to move into Lebanon to fill that need. Certainly conditions in Lebanon seem ripe for such a development.
6. "Lebanese" al-Qaida remains Palestinian al-Qaida
As if on cue, the "al-Qaida Organization in Lebanon" released this past week a statement threatening to destroy the Lebanese government.
Statement by 'Al-Qa'ida Organization in Lebanon' Threatens To 'Destroy' Govt
Unattributed report: "Statement in the name of 'Al-Qa'ida' in the Nahr al-Barid camp threatens the government"
Al-Nahar (Internet Version-WWW)
Tuesday, November 14, 2006 T08:44:13Z
Document Type: OSC Translated Text:
Al-Nahar has received a fax statement in the name of the "Al-Qa'ida Organization in Lebanon" that was copied and distributed in the Nahr al-Barid (Palestinian) refugee camp. Following is the text of the statement:(Description of Source: Beirut Al-Nahar (Internet Version-WWW) in Arabic -- Independent, moderate, centrist, and christian; root URL: http://www.annahar.com.lb) Posted on 20 November 2006 @ 11:33"In the name of God, most Gracious, most Merciful. Oh God, guide our aim, and keep our feet firm. Praise be to God and peace and blessings be upon the messenger of God, Prophet Muhammad, and his household, and companions. We announce that we have arrived in Lebanon and will work to destroy this corrupt government that takes its orders from the US Administration, and we warn all the agents who are attempting to harm us. Let them know that we are lying in wait for them, God willing. Your brethren in the "Al-Qa'ida Organization in Lebanon" are proceeding in their jihad and combat with the enemies of God so that only God is worshipped, as there will either be victory or martyrdom. God is great, God is great. Glory belongs to God, His messenger, and the mujahiddin."
